All-Weather Finals Preview

The most obvious and dumb narrative of this Finals series is Good (the humble Thunder from humble Oklahoma City with their humble superstars) vs. Evil (the microwaved Heat from flashy Miami with Rust Belt traitor LeBron James). It’s probably the most WWE an NBA Finals will ever get, mostly because Durant and LeBron come from the same pedigree: position-defying guards in power forward bodies. LeBron with his otherworldly passing. Durant the scoring savant. It even extends to the secondary guys—Dwyane Wade and Russell Westbrook are tiny, muscular wrecking balls hurling through the lane with as much regard for those in their path as the meteor from Armageddon.

With Lang Whitaker’s excellent oral history of the Dream Team being published in GQ this week, I’ve been thinking about these superstar teams. There’s a new cliché of teams having a “Big Three.” It was born with the KG-Pierce-Allen Celtics, made mainstream by The Decision Heat, and became stupid this year, when ESPN had a graphic calling Danny Granger, Paul George, and Roy Hibbert “Indiana’s Big Three.” What, no love for David West or Darren Collison?

Anyway, it’s getting stupid. Boston’s been a Big Four for at least two years now, and Miami will always be a Big Two and a Half, unless Bosh starts getting 15 boards a game and playing lockdown post defense. But these “Big Three” teams—at least Miami, anyway—seem an attempt to recreate the magic of an Olympic team. Allegedly, though it will never be proven, Miami’s two and a half men made a pact to play together during the 2008 Olympics. This is ridiculous in terms of a “beating your rivals, proving you were the greatest of your generation” mentality, but understandable because these dudes are all friends.

What’s different about the adulation of the Dream Team and the hatred of the Heat? My stance is that the Dream Team was a representation of the United States. It was meant to show the world what basketball really could be. It paved the way for international guys to step up their games and gave us Dirk, Manu, Kukoc, Petrovic, and the Gasol brothers. The Heat are different because they came together with a sense of taking the easy path to a chip. I’ve discussed this a lot, and so have greater minds than mine, and that’s not the point of this column.

The point is this: it’s not Good vs. Evil. It’s just that LeBron is a dick. He spent two years batting his eyelashes at every team in the league before backstabbing his (sort-of) hometown on national television without bothering to inform his old team. His attitude of caring about his brand first and team second is an insult to the game. But his game is a thing of wonder and beauty. He’s as big as Karl Malone and plays from the perimeter. He can defend all five positions. He’s a pass-first guy who can explode for 45-15-5 in a pivotal playoff game, something that hasn’t been done since Wilt Chamberlain was playing. So what if he’s a dick? Kobe and Michael are, too.

Sports media and today’s basketball fans are hell-bent on looking for the next Michael Jordan—a great player who truly dominates all comers and leaves no room for debate. I get that. Jordan’s my favorite player of all time, and I was fortunate enough to see his last three years (the Wizards never happened). But we’re not seeing another Jordan any time soon, and that’s good for basketball.

What we’re potentially seeing is the birth of a titanic rivalry. LeBron and Durant: two players who completely change the game with their seemingly-at-odds height/skill combinations. Will it be Bird/Magic 2.0? The parallels aren’t quite there yet. What about Russell/Chamberlain 2.0, where one is clearly more talented and one is a better winner? This is the story to watch for—not whether LeBron is “clutch” or the Thunder are “young.”

So if Esquire’s Scott Raab could quit crying and shut the hell up for this series, that would be great. Also, if ESPN could stop acting like Fox News covering the Presidential campaign, that’d be awesome, too.

As far as predictions, it’s tough to say. There are matchup nightmares at every position and big questions facing both coaches.

Miami is going to have to continue their pattern of not playing a center. No Joel Anthony, no Ronny Turiaf, no Eddy Curry, no Dexter Pittman. Chris Bosh (soft), Udonis Haslem (undersized), and LeBron (not a center) aren’t traditional solutions, but they’re important. The Thunder’s defense is effective because Kendrick Perkins can guard anyone on the low post and Serge Ibaka is a great help defender who will get blocks by roaming away from his man. The only guy you really want Perkins guarding is Haslem—he can’t chase Bosh or Bron all over the perimeter. If Ibaka’s got his hands full with LeBron or stuck making sure Bosh doesn’t start shooting from distance, his help opportunities are severely limited. So OKC needs to make some adjustments.

LeBron will be guarding Durant, and as great a defender as he is, he’s never had his hands full as much as he will against KD. Bron’s defensive game, while versatile, is built on gambling in passing lanes. There’s no way to do that here. On the flip side, I don’t know how much Durant guards LeBron. He’s not the best defender and certainly not as strong as Bron. Putting Durant on Bosh or Shane Battier will allow him to save his energy for his offense.

Wade vs. Westbrook is going to be a fascinating matchup, maybe more so than KD/Bron.  Wade has been hobbled all playoffs, and while he’s had some great games, he’s also had some forgettable ones. He’s openly ceded the team to LeBron, which is interesting because this time last year, he was getting up in LBJ’s face and destroying his manhood before trying to single-handedly win the series. Westbrook still hasn’t completely silenced critics of his poor decision making skills and propensity to jack up 25 shots for 23 points. Out of all of the young Thunder pieces, he’s is the biggest wild card.

What to really watch for in this series is the pick-and-roll game. OKC relies on it almost exclusively, and they aren’t good passers (making the roll or pop man considerably less effective). Miami is one of the best in the league at defending the pick-and-roll, trapping hard and forcing ballhandlers away from the basket. If they don’t want LeBron and Wade spending most of the game in the open court getting huge dunks, they’re going to have to move without the ball and guys not named Durant, Westbrook, or Harden are going to have to knock down shots. They’re going to have to run more of that pin-down screen that’s been so effective.

Since we’re not sure what they’re starting lineups will be, let’s break down probable matchups based on team role:

LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant: The quest for NBA alpha dog status. LeBron’s a better defender, Durant’s been more reliable. To close to tell. Advantage: Even.

Dwyane Wade vs. Russell Westbrook: Discussed above. Wade is the better player, but he might not be 100%. If Westbrook keeps his head on straight, it could swing the series. Slight advantage: Miami.

Chris Bosh vs. Serge Ibaka: Bosh is the All-Star, Ibaka maybe the more valuable dude for his team. Ibaka can guard Bosh on the perimeter, and if Bosh’s shot isn’t falling, we’ll see a lot more weak side blocks. Advantage: Even.

Shane Battier vs. Thabo Sefolosha: Both defensive stoppers. Look for a lot of Thabo on LeBron and Battier to take James Harden. It would really help both teams if either of them could be reliable shooters. With Battier’s age and lost athleticism, Thabo might be better, but Battier still has veteran know-how and plays more than 20 minutes a game. Slight advantage: Miami.

Udonis Haslem vs. Nick Collison: Both are going to have to have their midrange jumper going, and both are going to have to be willing to play out of position at center. Collison’s a better help defender, Haslem is better rebounder and has the experience of being a captain of a championship team. Advantage: Miami.

Norris Cole vs. Derek Fisher: Pretty much the reverse of Haslem/Collison. Look for one to have a huge moment that makes them overrated going into the summer. Advantage: Oklahoma City.

Mike Miller vs. Daequan Cook: Two shooters who have seen better days. Miller will get more burn than Cook, but he’s also not completely healthy. Look for both to get a lot of shots in the second quarter, and the potential for one of them to have a John Paxson in 1993/Steve Kerr in 1997 moment is high. Advantage: Miami.

Ronny Turiaf vs. Kendrick Perkins: Neither should get much time, as this isn’t a series for bangers and tough guys. But you always want a tough guy in a high-stakes series. Likelihood of either getting suspended: 2-to-1. Advantage: Oklahoma City.

That’s eight dudes, with two key members from each team missing. Miami has a slight overall advantage in all of those matchups, but there’s so many variables that it doesn’t mean much. That points to the difference in the series being this:

James Harden vs. Mario Chalmers: They’re very different players and may or may not spend a lot of time guarding each other, but they are both “the other dude” for their teams. Chalmers is a sometime playmaker whose main job is to drill threes. If he gets it going, that blows the game open for James and Wade to abuse their defenders one-on-one. Harden is also a sometime playmaker who can take over and be the best guy on the floor. He commits fewer turnovers than Westbrook and should probably run the offense in crunch time, allowing Durant and Westbrook to move without the ball and get open on back screens and pin-downs. Plus, he’s the reigning 6th Man of the Year. Huge advantage: Oklahoma City.

So final prediction? OKC just made chumps of the best team in basketball. They look like the 1991 Bulls and have an aura of destiny about them. On the other hand, LeBron may have turned into a super basketball robot, as evidenced by his cool, detached domination of Games 6 and 7. Plus, it’s hard to see LeBron whiffing on his first three Finals appearances. That said, he does have to carry this team, and he looked tired in Game 5 (before becoming a robot). It should be a brutal series and you shouldn’t miss a game of it.

Thunder in seven.

---