This is Why We Play the Games: Bulls-Lakers Recap, 1.21.13
Posted: January 23, 2013 Filed under: Uncategorized Leave a commentOn Martin Luther King Day, the Bulls trotted out their broken roster of borderline All-Stars against a Los Angeles Lakers team that potentially has four Hall of Famers. The Lakers’ dysfunction is well-documented, and the Bulls’ “work ethic” and “hustle” is talked about all the time. Luol Deng was out with injury and Pau Gasol was coming off the bench behind Earl Clark/Dwight Howard. So there was some intrigue, just maybe not the kind of intrigue that could be described as “exciting.”
The Bulls controlled the game for the most part, until the Lakers tied the score in the fourth. I watched, ready for Kobe Bryant to do work. Or Steve Nash to start picking apart the defense. To win, you need the best player on the floor, and the Lakers have four future Hall of Famers.
Instead, the Bulls came on strong and won by ten. What was surprising is how they did it. They didn’t win on the strong interior passing and post play that we’ve been seeing. They won because Kirk Hinrich and Marco Belinelli dominated the fourth quarter, combing for 14 points, four rebounds, and three assists down the stretch. Jimmy Butler worked Kobe Bryant over on the defensive end. The Lakers looked like a mess of a squad who hasn’t figured out how to play together, and maybe they don’t want to. Reports have surfaced that Nash wanted to come to LA to play with Pau Gasol. Apparently Dwight mocks Kobe’s shooting stats (never mind that they’re the best of his career). Kobe’s a jerk.
I won’t go into any clichés about hard work, teamwork, hustle, etc. But when the season began, a Lakers-Heat Finals seemed a foregone conclusion, and Bulls looked to be headed for the draft lottery (or worse, a 6-seed). Halfway through the season, the Bulls are a game and half out of a 2-seed and expect Derrick Rose to resume full contract practice soon. The Lakers don’t even seem like they can make the playoffs. It’s a long season, and things can change. But the games do matter.
Bulls-Cavaliers Recap: Bulls Dominate Interior on Both Ends, Mask Desperate Need for Outside Shooting
Posted: January 8, 2013 Filed under: Game recaps | Tags: carlos boozer, chicago bulls, cleveland cavaliers, joakim noah, kirk hinrich, luol deng, Nate Robinson, taj gibson Leave a commentThe offense is largely run through Joakim Noah in the high post. Carlos Boozer can still be a decent low-post player, and the wings and guards are all decent-to-very-good at spot-up shooting and/or cutting to the basket. 62% of their attempts came at the rim last night, and the Noah-Boozer-Deng-Gibson frontcourt combined for 62 of the 118 points.
For the season, the Bulls are a pedestrian 14th in the league at attempts at the rim (25 per game) and FG% at the rim (64.4) (per hoopdata.com). More encouraging, though, is that they’re third in the league at assist percentage at the rim (58.9), trailing only the Warriors and Lob City Clippers. That’s great company, and suggests to a smarter offensive scheme than Tom Thibodeau is usually given credit for.
Unfortunately, the Bulls are also 4th in the league in attempts from 16-23 feet(24.1), trailing the similarly unwatchable offenses of Washington, Phoenix, and Philadelphia. These are the most high-risk, low-reward shots to take in basketball. To make matters worse, they’re dead last in threes attempted at 13.1 per game. This is what happens when the “shooters” on your team look like this:
Belinelli (40 FG%-40 3P%-87 FT%-54 TS%)
Hinrich (36-36-74-46)
Deng (43-30-82-51)
Hamilton (45-39-93-52)
Robinson (42-37-84-52)
#TheReturn, or Something
Posted: January 3, 2013 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: #TheReturn, chicago bulls, Neil Funk, orlando magic, Stacey King Leave a commentAs painful as the team has become to watch, the more frustrating part of the season has been watching the organization talk itself into outdated models of scouting and evaluating players. The Bulls are less a winning organization and more a group of hardworking guys. Second City-ism.
We get Kirk Hinrich instead of C.J. Watson because Kirk “has been a starting point guard in this league” and “plays tough,hard defense, like Thibs preaches.” Marco Belinelli is “a more complete player than Kyle Korver.” Jimmy Butler can play “the Ronnie Brewer role.” None of these moves really made sense, especially when Brewer was reportedly willing tore-sign for less money. There were a bunch of tepid, low-risk moves that didn’t blow up the team or cure any of the problems.
So now the Bulls are a team of guys who “go out there and get the job done.”Joakim Noah should be an All-Star, and Luol Deng is borderline. Nate Robinson has flourished as a kind of supercharged John Lucas—the only player on the team who can create his own shot. But even Nate’s future with the team was uncertain for a while.
This has all resulted in a team good enough for a mid-level playoff spot and a bunch of teasers about how Derrick Rose still has two legs. They will be able to compete in the playoffs, and competing is good. But can anyone seriously see them getting past Miami? Or beating San Antonio, Oklahoma City, or the Clippers?
Making matters all the more depressing has been enduring the games with the increasingly flagrant homerism of Neil Funk and a clownish reliance on sad catchphrases from Stacey King. Anyone who makes a 12-footer needs to pass Stacey the hot sauce, praise once reserved for when one of the league’s best shooters hit a three. Marco is “The Italian Stallion,” which is also a porn movie starring Sylvester Stallone. Hinrich’s name is growled, because he’s a bulldog, I guess? Last night, Neil seriously debated an out-of-bounds call where Hinrich grabbed a rebound while straddling the baseline. Most people sitting in the 300 level would say, “the ball bounced to Kirk while he still had a foot out,” but We Got The Funk needed to see a replay two times.
I’m not saying that management explicitly told Neil and Stacey to talk up players that were clearly brought in as cost-cutting moves. Their job is to call the game, and they’re calling it for a local audience. I get that. It just sounds like your Uncle Rico trying to throw a football a quarter mile.
Last night’s game was a great win. It was perhaps too close against a post-Dwight Howard Orlando (another team that’s “well-coached” and “plays hard”), but it featured some beautiful interior passing. Orlando switched on every pick and roll, and the Bulls exploited frequent mismatches and blown rotations. It’s hard to justify switching on pick and rolls when a team has no one who can shoot or drive, but that’s part of why Orlando is missing the playoffs. Boozer finished with a season high 31 points and added 11 rebounds, while Gibson got a season high 21 points and 11 rebounds. Deng had 23, and Hinrich and Rip Hamilton had 8 and 9 assists, respectively. Hinrich’s tough, gritty defense allowed Jameer Nelson to throw up 32-5-4.
Second Acts in Basketball Lives
Posted: June 21, 2012 Filed under: 2012 Playoffs | Tags: James Harden, lebron james, miami heat, oklahoma city thunder, russell westbrook Leave a commentLeBron James is averaging 30.5-10-5 throughout the playoffs, striking numbers because no one’s done that through a whole playoffs since Oscar Robertson. It’s also striking because his assists are way down. A man we usually think of as a point guard is asserting himself as a power forward—the Karl Malone/1987 Magic Johnson we’ve always dreamed of. He’s made it look easy, too. Yet, as Bethlehem Shoals points out, it feels like the world is shrugging its shoulders at LeBron’s dominance because that was what was supposed to happen.
LeBron has a lot of haters, but he also has a lot of intensely passionate supporters (ESPN, for instance). The haters’ case goes something like, “he broke up with his hometown on national TV to go play with another top-5 guy and he melts down in big moments,” and the supporters’ case goes something like, “he’s probably the best combination of talent and athleticism we’ll ever see, and he should be lauded for taking less money to play on a great team.”
Well, he is the greatest combination of talent and athleticism we’ll probably ever see, but it does matter that he decided to play with another alpha dog. Those two things are especially important because in this era of social media, blogs, and 24-hour, 5-channels worth of ESPN and NBATV coverage, everything is analyzed and re-analyzed, subject to backlash and backlash-to-backlash, and every minute detail of a player’s life and decision making are subject to discussion. That, rightly or wrongly, affects how we view players.
LeBron, smartly, has thought about the concept of his “brand” since he was 17. LeBron, dumbly, made that thinking public knowledge. Then he did maybe the worst thing he could’ve done to his brand (shy of getting a massage in Colorado). And that has and will cloud his career forever, because now sports media talks about everything in terms of defining career moments. In 2007, him going 1-on-5 against one of the best defensive teams of the 00s was Act I of the LeBron Dominates the League show. In 2010, his disinterested half-assing of the final games against the Celtics proved he didn’t have a winner’s mentality. In 2011, his destruction of the Bulls in the ECF proved he was unstoppable. Then his absence from the Finals and verbal beatdown from Dywane Wade proved all the critics right.
This shows that, as heroic as playing through cramps is, that’s not a defining moment of his career. It’s not “redemption.” It’s just an incredible playoff moment in a huge situation. The Thunder was so in awe of his toughness they couldn’t even drive on him or defend his gimpy ass. It was truly incredible, but I’m not calling it “redemption” unless he starts playing this confidently every summer.
Every talking head is saying things like “this is what we’ve always wanted LeBron to do.” Bill Simmons says he’s a rich man’s version of Larry Bird (whom Simmons ranks, and I agree, as the 5th best basketball player of all time). From a basketball standpoint, it’s been amazing to watch. He’s locking down the best scorer in the game (something Bird couldn’t dream of doing) and dominating so easily and quietly you forget to appreciate it during the game. But it’s tapered with the nagging “what the hell took him this long?” question and the “he’ll never be able to say he came close to beating Wade in his prime” asterisk. But all this has been hashed and re-hashed. A player much more fascinating—and just as polarizing—is Russell Westbrook.
Westbrook is fiery ball of chaos ripping through the court like an out-of-control drone through the mountains of Afghanistan. He’s the guy who’s fearless because he’s too low-IQ of a player (or too young) to really understand what’s happening as it’s happening. He shoots too much, tries to hero-ball too much, and is probably a two-guard in a point guard’s body. But he also became only the third player—after Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal—to put up at least 43-7-5 in a Finals game. And that was on 20/32 shooting—not exactly Kobe numbers.
Westbrook has the potential to be every bit as good as Derrick Rose. Rose is a smarter player and better passer, Westbrook is a better scorer and now a better athlete (moment of silence, pours out drink). If he’d had his own team, ready-made with an athletic wing and top-5 center, maybe he’d already have an MVP. Maybe he’d be dropping 30 a night on 34 shots and working his way through his third coach in four years. But he’s fascinating because there are just so many questions around him. He defies basketball logic.
Everyone wants him to be Isiah Thomas, the passing point guard who sets up Durantula, tosses alleys to Ibaka, and lets James Harden be the number two scorer. No one thinks a point guard should be able to operate like he does, and they shout comparisons of Starbury and Steve Francis. These comparisons aren’t unearned—I thought Westbrook’s poor decision-making and hero-ball tendencies cost them the Mavericks series in 2011. This year? He’s grown up a bit, and the Thunder have learned how to temper him. Harden and Durant run the offense a lot. If Eric Maynor wasn’t hurt, he’d be an effective option at times. The best course of action with Russ, as weird as it sounds, is to let him be himself. Shoot when he’s feeling it. Attack the rim like a D.Wade or D.Rose would. Make the defense remember how explosive he is. Get out in transition for demoralizing dunks.
That’s who Westbrook is. And thus far, his career his been defined by commentators wanting him to be who he’s not. Where LeBron gets killed for not being who he should be, Westbrook is criticized for not wavering on his instincts. It’s fascinating, and I feel like the controversy around both guys wouldn’t be anyone close to where it is if it weren’t for the 24-hour news and Social Media Awards era.
One last thing: James Harden, don’t think you’re exempt from this. 10.7 points a game, with only one in double figures? You realize you and the league’s leading shot blocker are both up for contract extensions after next season? Turn in another bad game, and you will endure a summer of national media, your own fake-beard wearing fans, and anyone with a keyboard and internet connection wondering if you should be traded for Michael Kidd-Gilcrest or whatever table scraps get your team under the cap enough to sign Steve Nash. All the love you got for the beard, the Mr. T look, hell, even winning 6th Man of the Year—all of that can easily evaporate. Ask Lamar Odom how he’s been doing recently.
What’s Clutch, What’s Fixed, and What’s Awesome About This Finals.
Posted: June 19, 2012 Filed under: 2012 Playoffs | Tags: kevin durant, lebron james, miami heat, oklahoma city thunder Leave a commentThe Basketball Jones is doing a “just for fun” tally of how many points Kevin Durant and LeBron James score in the fourth quarter of each Finals game. Through Game 3, LeBron has 21 and Durantula has 37. Somehow, the Heat are up 2-1. TBJ may be proving a very interesting point on how we define “clutch.”
When the until-very-recently league-owned New Orleans Hornets won the Draft Lottery on the same night as referees made a lot of dubious calls on NBA officials, a lot of morons started yapping about “the fix being in.” Cries of the NBA being rigged began to ring out from the watchful eye of these modern day Paul Reveres. One by draft lotto, two by Finals fix.
There’s no question that there have been some horrible calls this postseason. The non-foul at the end of Game 2—where LeBron hacked and held Durant probably four times right in front of referee Tony Brothers and Durant pulled up out of a misguided assumption that he’d get two free throws—that absolutely turned the tables on this series. Miami heads home for a three game stretch tied, rather than down 2-0? Yes, it matters. But that’s not taking into account the fact that OKC was down 27-15 at the end of the first quarter.
All four quarters are important, and all the pieces matter. That’s why you can’t run around saying “LeBron ain’t clutch” while suggesting poor officiating is the only reason Kevin Durant didn’t turn in to 1996 Jordan. Yes, you are going to have to play well in the fourth quarter—these games are all going to be close. The only score that counts is the final one. Sometimes, it will come down to who makes the final shot—and who’s willing to take it. Then again, if you don’t show up for an entire half, you deserve what you get.
It’s impossible to ignore that the greatest scorer in basketball is being strongly affected by LBJ’s defense. In Game 3, Durant’s willingness to step up in the fourth was conspicuously absent. I’m not saying it’s because Durant ain’t clutch. I’m saying it’s because he was timid playing with five fouls against LeBron James. Two of those fouls were bullshit, but whatever. Maybe if James Harden hadn’t gone 2-10, things would’ve been different. Maybe if Scott Brooks didn’t stubbornly insist on constantly playing at least two of his bigs (Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison) rather than matching up, thing’s would’ve been different. That’s allowed Shane Battier to shoot 70% from distance this series, and led to some dumb fouls due to poor defensive rotations and an inability to cover the whole floor.
This brings up another point. Jeff Van Gundy was talking about how if coaches listened to the national media every time they called for adjustments, they’d lose their locker room within two weeks. I believe he said “full on mutiny.” He’s right—players do like to know their roles, and a set rotation helps that. The mutiny Rip Hamilton led against John Kuester in Detroit two years ago was mostly due to this problem. The Pistons had about six wing players, three combo guards, and two centers (one of whom was a rookie and another who was a real-life dinosaur). I’d love to see that team graphed in the Muthuball system.
The Heat have used seven different starting lineups with five different starting centers in the playoffs, and yet they’re somehow up 2-1 in the Finals. It doesn’t make sense, and I still believe that any coach who thinks starting Dexter Pittman is a smart thing to do should be fired. The Thunder, on the other hand, have used the same starting lineup for all 18 playoff games, and they should arguably be up 2-1 in the Finals. And yet, everyone’s calling for Scott Brooks to make adjustments to his rotation.
Yes and no. The Heat, smartly, have settled on a starting five of Bosh-LeBron-Battier-Wade-Chalmers. The Thunder are running Perkins-Ibaka-Durant-Thabo-Westbrook. While OKC has the more traditional lineup, it doesn’t match up at all. Perk is tough enough to guard Bosh one-on-one, but he’s too slow to guard Bosh on a pick-and-roll, and Bosh has been getting stupid ridiculous easy looks at the basket. You don’t want Ibaka on LeBron, because he needs to roam around and Iblocka shots with his help defense instincts. Then again, Battier’s shooting threes so well it’s like the hoop doubles in size every time he raises up.
Oh hi, Scoot Brooks, you want my take? Start the game normally. That’s your starting lineup, don’t mess with it now. Force Miami to play your game—pound the ball into Perkins early and let him throw his wrecking ball shoulders into Bosh’s chest. The Bulls used to do that with Luc Longley, and then never pass to him after the 8:00 mark in the first. Most of the game should be played with Durant at the 4 and Perk-Ibaka-Nick Collison at the 5, but only one of those three on the court at a time. Between Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Thabo, and Derek Fisher, you have plenty of perimeter guys who can run with the Heat’s quick lineups. If James Jones comes in, dust off Daequan Cook.
It’s not redefining any roles, it’s just matching up. Playoffs are all about matchups. And you’re letting a team built on tough D and fast breaks beat the hell out of you in transition because you’re stubbornly adhering to playing two bigs at all times? Scott Books, your team is loaded with position-defying players. It’s either the future of basketball, or it will never be duplicated. Either way, take advantage of it.
Bringing this back to officiating and the lottery, the fix is not in. Well, I can’t be too sure about the lottery. But if you’re worried about league-sanctioned referee mistakes, go back to cheering for the 1919 White Sox. And if you’re certain that how many points a star scores in the fourth quarter is the only relevant metric to winning a championship, just quit watching basketball. Yes, there have been some bad calls. Yes, LeBron’s had a few playoff meltdowns. But this series is so good and about so much more than LeBron v Durant. This is one of the most unpredictable, could-go-either-way Finals with two of the most exciting teams in a long time. Enjoy it and quit griping about conspiracies.
All-Weather Finals Preview
Posted: June 12, 2012 Filed under: 2012 Playoffs | Tags: chris bosh, dwyane wade, heat, James Harden, kevin durant, lebron james, russell westbrook, Serge Ibaka, thunder Leave a commentThe most obvious and dumb narrative of this Finals series is Good (the humble Thunder from humble Oklahoma City with their humble superstars) vs. Evil (the microwaved Heat from flashy Miami with Rust Belt traitor LeBron James). It’s probably the most WWE an NBA Finals will ever get, mostly because Durant and LeBron come from the same pedigree: position-defying guards in power forward bodies. LeBron with his otherworldly passing. Durant the scoring savant. It even extends to the secondary guys—Dwyane Wade and Russell Westbrook are tiny, muscular wrecking balls hurling through the lane with as much regard for those in their path as the meteor from Armageddon.
With Lang Whitaker’s excellent oral history of the Dream Team being published in GQ this week, I’ve been thinking about these superstar teams. There’s a new cliché of teams having a “Big Three.” It was born with the KG-Pierce-Allen Celtics, made mainstream by The Decision Heat, and became stupid this year, when ESPN had a graphic calling Danny Granger, Paul George, and Roy Hibbert “Indiana’s Big Three.” What, no love for David West or Darren Collison?
Anyway, it’s getting stupid. Boston’s been a Big Four for at least two years now, and Miami will always be a Big Two and a Half, unless Bosh starts getting 15 boards a game and playing lockdown post defense. But these “Big Three” teams—at least Miami, anyway—seem an attempt to recreate the magic of an Olympic team. Allegedly, though it will never be proven, Miami’s two and a half men made a pact to play together during the 2008 Olympics. This is ridiculous in terms of a “beating your rivals, proving you were the greatest of your generation” mentality, but understandable because these dudes are all friends.
What’s different about the adulation of the Dream Team and the hatred of the Heat? My stance is that the Dream Team was a representation of the United States. It was meant to show the world what basketball really could be. It paved the way for international guys to step up their games and gave us Dirk, Manu, Kukoc, Petrovic, and the Gasol brothers. The Heat are different because they came together with a sense of taking the easy path to a chip. I’ve discussed this a lot, and so have greater minds than mine, and that’s not the point of this column.
The point is this: it’s not Good vs. Evil. It’s just that LeBron is a dick. He spent two years batting his eyelashes at every team in the league before backstabbing his (sort-of) hometown on national television without bothering to inform his old team. His attitude of caring about his brand first and team second is an insult to the game. But his game is a thing of wonder and beauty. He’s as big as Karl Malone and plays from the perimeter. He can defend all five positions. He’s a pass-first guy who can explode for 45-15-5 in a pivotal playoff game, something that hasn’t been done since Wilt Chamberlain was playing. So what if he’s a dick? Kobe and Michael are, too.
Sports media and today’s basketball fans are hell-bent on looking for the next Michael Jordan—a great player who truly dominates all comers and leaves no room for debate. I get that. Jordan’s my favorite player of all time, and I was fortunate enough to see his last three years (the Wizards never happened). But we’re not seeing another Jordan any time soon, and that’s good for basketball.
What we’re potentially seeing is the birth of a titanic rivalry. LeBron and Durant: two players who completely change the game with their seemingly-at-odds height/skill combinations. Will it be Bird/Magic 2.0? The parallels aren’t quite there yet. What about Russell/Chamberlain 2.0, where one is clearly more talented and one is a better winner? This is the story to watch for—not whether LeBron is “clutch” or the Thunder are “young.”
So if Esquire’s Scott Raab could quit crying and shut the hell up for this series, that would be great. Also, if ESPN could stop acting like Fox News covering the Presidential campaign, that’d be awesome, too.
As far as predictions, it’s tough to say. There are matchup nightmares at every position and big questions facing both coaches.
Miami is going to have to continue their pattern of not playing a center. No Joel Anthony, no Ronny Turiaf, no Eddy Curry, no Dexter Pittman. Chris Bosh (soft), Udonis Haslem (undersized), and LeBron (not a center) aren’t traditional solutions, but they’re important. The Thunder’s defense is effective because Kendrick Perkins can guard anyone on the low post and Serge Ibaka is a great help defender who will get blocks by roaming away from his man. The only guy you really want Perkins guarding is Haslem—he can’t chase Bosh or Bron all over the perimeter. If Ibaka’s got his hands full with LeBron or stuck making sure Bosh doesn’t start shooting from distance, his help opportunities are severely limited. So OKC needs to make some adjustments.
LeBron will be guarding Durant, and as great a defender as he is, he’s never had his hands full as much as he will against KD. Bron’s defensive game, while versatile, is built on gambling in passing lanes. There’s no way to do that here. On the flip side, I don’t know how much Durant guards LeBron. He’s not the best defender and certainly not as strong as Bron. Putting Durant on Bosh or Shane Battier will allow him to save his energy for his offense.
Wade vs. Westbrook is going to be a fascinating matchup, maybe more so than KD/Bron. Wade has been hobbled all playoffs, and while he’s had some great games, he’s also had some forgettable ones. He’s openly ceded the team to LeBron, which is interesting because this time last year, he was getting up in LBJ’s face and destroying his manhood before trying to single-handedly win the series. Westbrook still hasn’t completely silenced critics of his poor decision making skills and propensity to jack up 25 shots for 23 points. Out of all of the young Thunder pieces, he’s is the biggest wild card.
What to really watch for in this series is the pick-and-roll game. OKC relies on it almost exclusively, and they aren’t good passers (making the roll or pop man considerably less effective). Miami is one of the best in the league at defending the pick-and-roll, trapping hard and forcing ballhandlers away from the basket. If they don’t want LeBron and Wade spending most of the game in the open court getting huge dunks, they’re going to have to move without the ball and guys not named Durant, Westbrook, or Harden are going to have to knock down shots. They’re going to have to run more of that pin-down screen that’s been so effective.
Since we’re not sure what they’re starting lineups will be, let’s break down probable matchups based on team role:
LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant: The quest for NBA alpha dog status. LeBron’s a better defender, Durant’s been more reliable. To close to tell. Advantage: Even.
Dwyane Wade vs. Russell Westbrook: Discussed above. Wade is the better player, but he might not be 100%. If Westbrook keeps his head on straight, it could swing the series. Slight advantage: Miami.
Chris Bosh vs. Serge Ibaka: Bosh is the All-Star, Ibaka maybe the more valuable dude for his team. Ibaka can guard Bosh on the perimeter, and if Bosh’s shot isn’t falling, we’ll see a lot more weak side blocks. Advantage: Even.
Shane Battier vs. Thabo Sefolosha: Both defensive stoppers. Look for a lot of Thabo on LeBron and Battier to take James Harden. It would really help both teams if either of them could be reliable shooters. With Battier’s age and lost athleticism, Thabo might be better, but Battier still has veteran know-how and plays more than 20 minutes a game. Slight advantage: Miami.
Udonis Haslem vs. Nick Collison: Both are going to have to have their midrange jumper going, and both are going to have to be willing to play out of position at center. Collison’s a better help defender, Haslem is better rebounder and has the experience of being a captain of a championship team. Advantage: Miami.
Norris Cole vs. Derek Fisher: Pretty much the reverse of Haslem/Collison. Look for one to have a huge moment that makes them overrated going into the summer. Advantage: Oklahoma City.
Mike Miller vs. Daequan Cook: Two shooters who have seen better days. Miller will get more burn than Cook, but he’s also not completely healthy. Look for both to get a lot of shots in the second quarter, and the potential for one of them to have a John Paxson in 1993/Steve Kerr in 1997 moment is high. Advantage: Miami.
Ronny Turiaf vs. Kendrick Perkins: Neither should get much time, as this isn’t a series for bangers and tough guys. But you always want a tough guy in a high-stakes series. Likelihood of either getting suspended: 2-to-1. Advantage: Oklahoma City.
That’s eight dudes, with two key members from each team missing. Miami has a slight overall advantage in all of those matchups, but there’s so many variables that it doesn’t mean much. That points to the difference in the series being this:
James Harden vs. Mario Chalmers: They’re very different players and may or may not spend a lot of time guarding each other, but they are both “the other dude” for their teams. Chalmers is a sometime playmaker whose main job is to drill threes. If he gets it going, that blows the game open for James and Wade to abuse their defenders one-on-one. Harden is also a sometime playmaker who can take over and be the best guy on the floor. He commits fewer turnovers than Westbrook and should probably run the offense in crunch time, allowing Durant and Westbrook to move without the ball and get open on back screens and pin-downs. Plus, he’s the reigning 6th Man of the Year. Huge advantage: Oklahoma City.
So final prediction? OKC just made chumps of the best team in basketball. They look like the 1991 Bulls and have an aura of destiny about them. On the other hand, LeBron may have turned into a super basketball robot, as evidenced by his cool, detached domination of Games 6 and 7. Plus, it’s hard to see LeBron whiffing on his first three Finals appearances. That said, he does have to carry this team, and he looked tired in Game 5 (before becoming a robot). It should be a brutal series and you shouldn’t miss a game of it.
Thunder in seven.
Farewell to the Excellent Spurs, and OKC Plays Like Dutch Footballers
Posted: June 7, 2012 Filed under: 2012 Playoffs | Tags: kevin durant, oklahoma city thunder, san antonio spurs, totalfootball Leave a commentAs a disclaimer before I start calling the Spurs “old” and “part of the old guard” and “a holdover from pre-rules changes NBA,” let me just say how amazing they’ve been this season. And I’m not talking about their records. It’s their style. They constantly move without the ball, seem to intuitively know when to run a pick-and-roll vs. a pick-and-pop, and play fast while still being tough.
Ethan Sherwood Strauss had an interesting piece on Hoopspeak yesterday about the draft cliché of “if you make a mistake, make it big.” Specifically, he was talking about Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. After just one year in college, here’s how the two stacked up: “One player is 6′ 11” without shoes, with a 7′ 4.25” wingspan. One player is 6′ 9” without shoes, with a 7′ 4.25” wingspan…the slightly taller guy averaged 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds. The slightly shorter guy averaged 25.8 points, 11.1 rebounds.” On that assessment alone, it’s actually hard to believe Oden was selected over Durant, and it comes back to this pre-jump shot idea that you need a dominant big man to win games. But, as Strauss points out, this is a narrow idea of dominance. It doesn’t allow for versatility or skill**. What NBA GMs want is Wilt Chamberlain or young Shaq—a guy who can stand on the post, catch the ball, and drop it into the hoop because everyone else is four inches shorter and fifty pounds lighter.
It’s a rather American idea of “bigger is better,” and it takes prescience over basketball IQ, athleticism, and distance shooting. Now, we’ve obviously seen that the European model of “have your center stand out on the perimeter and never get a rebound or block shots” doesn’t work. You do need to be able to protect the rim—Tyson Chandler’s inflated value after the 2011 Mavericks’ championship proves that. The point I’m trying to make is this: traditional Center-Power Forward-Small Forward-Shooting Guard-Point Guard positions aren’t what’s important anymore. Muthu Alagappan has just introduced an idea that there are actually 13 positions in basketball, and I’ll get to what I think about that in a later column. The line of thinking isn’t bad, though: stop focusing about how a player looks and focus on what he does.
Kevin Durant and the Thunder are proof of this. The Thunder almost play a basketball version of TotalFootball. Durant, at 6’10”, can play all five positions. James Harden can play either wing position and run the offense. Russell Westbrook is an explosion. Serge Ibaka, 6’10” with leaping ability and a 200-foot wingspan, can knock down a 15-footer. So can Nick Collison. Thabo Sefolosha can defend 1-4. They can go conventional with Perkins-Ibaka-Durant-Thabo/Harden-Westbrook, defensive small with Perkins-Durant-Thabo-Harden-Westbrook, offensive small with Ibaka-Durant-Harden-Derek Fisher-Westbrook, or suffocatingly big with Perkins-Collison-Ibaka-Durant-Harden (they haven’t done the last one, but are you scoring on that lineup?).
Late in last night’s Game 6, OKC took Kendrick Perkins out because he wasn’t athletic enough to handle the Spurs and their smallball lineup. The Spurs then went old school, with Tim Duncan attacking Serge Ibaka on the post. He made two shots and barely missed another, completely dominating a guy whose defensive reputation is probably inflated because of his help instincts and athleticism. The Thunder put Perkins back in to defend Duncan…then had him set high picks for Durant and Harden and hang out on the perimeter, taking Duncan away from the rim.
It was a message to basketball world: we can do anything and you can’t stop it or score on it. The Spurs have been sending the same message with their depth and variety of lineups. The difference last night was that OKC is younger and more talented.
The most fitting image was this: after Tony Parker four quick points by slicing up the Thunder defense and hitting acrobatic-but-not-impossible layups, an old-and-tired-looking Tim Duncan got no lift on a layup and was blocked by Perkins. The Spurs then missed about 100 threes, and in between it all, Durant found a rolling Perkins for an easy dunk to clinch the game. Then he got the last rebound with 8.8 seconds left and had the smarts to dribble to the 8-second line. That’s how locked-in he is. Final line: 34-14-5.
Maybe what’s been really misleading is all these 90s guys as announcers. Yes, you need toughness and “guys who do the dirty work” to win games, but that means tight defense and rebounding, not thugging out. Ibaka, Collison, and Perkins don’t have to start fights once a quarter. Hell, look at the Bulls and Tom Thibodeau’s “defense on a string” philosophy. It’s tight and it’s tough, but there’s no fouling or forearm shivers. Just flat-out basketball skill.
The Thunder have who could be the most talented player of his generation in Durant (he’ll spend his whole career fighting LeBron for it). What’s terrifying is that he’s 23. What’s exciting is he either has a chance to further eviscerate the old guard or properly begin the Bird/Magic rivalry with the Heatles. The NBA rules.
**Centers have been taken #1 or #2 in all but three of the last eleven drafts: Hasheem Thabeet (#2, 2009), Greg Oden (#1, 2007), Andrea Bargnani (#1, 2006), Andrew Bogut (#1, 2005) Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor (1/2, 2004), Darko Milic (#2, 2003), Yao Ming (#1, 2002), and Kwame Brown (2001). Wouldn’t you rather have James Harden, Ricky Rubio, or Stephen Curry in 2009? Or Durant, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, or even Arron Afflalo in 2007? Or LaMarcus Adridge or Rudy Gay in 2006? Deron Williams or Chris Paul in 2005? Luol Deng or Andre Iguodala instead of Okafor in 2004? Wade, Bosh, Carmelo, or Kirk Hinrich instead of Darko in 2003? Literally anyone over Kwame Brown? Only Yao and Dwight Howard get a pass on this—but Yao retired after seven seasons and Dwight’s proven he needs a guy who can create his own shot.
Boston, Miami, and the Case Against Taking the Regular Season Easy
Posted: June 6, 2012 Filed under: 2012 Playoffs | Tags: boston celtics, chris bosh, dwyane wade, erik spoelestra, kevin garnett, lebron james, miami heat, paul pierce, rajon rondo, ray allen Leave a commentESPN’s John Hollinger tweeted last night that the playoffs are so much more fun when we’re all wrong. This is true—a week ago, absolutely no one had the Celtics up 3-2 going back to Boston. A few people had Oklahoma City winning, which they could do tonight, but most thought the Spurs would continue to ride their massive winning streak to the Finals. Even so, no one’s really surprised OKC is up right now. What is shocking is that the Celtics are up.
Consider: Boston won last night even though the first half shooting lines for their starting five went like this: Garnett 4-10, Pierce 2-10, Rondo 1-8, Allen 1-4, and Bass 4-5. This somehow got them 40 points to Miami’s 42, of which 34 were thanks to LeBron, Wade, and a gimpy Bosh. LeBron would finish with 30 and Wade with 27, but no one else on the Heat could get into double figures. Somehow, Wade and Chalmers led the team with three assists each. For some reason, Chris Bosh didn’t play in the fourth quarter despite an effective 9 and 7 in 14 minutes.
The problem for Miami goes all the way back to the regular season.
Erik Spoelestra likely won’t have a job if Miami loses this series. I’m going to go ahead and call for it even if they win. This is a terribly coached team, and it has nothing to do with the challenge of incorporating three first options. They’ve never had an offensive identity, never had a set substitution pattern, and have never been pushed by their coach.
Earlier in the year, I was singing Spoelestra’s praises for his “Pace and Space” offense, and I stand by that. It’s encouraged Wade and LeBron—two of the greatest defensive gamblers and fast break players in the game—to get out and run, which they should’ve been doing their entire careers. But it hasn’t done much to change their halfcourt sets, except for “hey LeBron, go down into the post more” and “hey Bosh, shoot 20-footers instead of 18-footers to space the floor.” These are obvious things that, again, both should have been doing all along.
What’s lacking in their halfcourt sets is off-ball movement. Wade and James still, after all this scrutiny, stand in corners while the other one runs the offense. Would it be so difficult to install a motion offense? Wouldn’t you want a bunch of backdoor screens being set when your roster consists of two of the best playmakers in the game and nothing else but shooters? Or what about the triangle? Wade and James can both play in the post or run the offense. Shane Battier, Mike Miller, and Mario Chalmers would all be effective corner men. The offense isn’t as hard as everyone thinks, especially when you’ve got two of the most cerebral players in the game.
But ok, fine. That’s just a different offensive philosophy. Most NBA coaches like a pick and roll game where three out of five guys stand around. But Spo’s incompetency was most evident on the final play of the game. Down four with a manageable 8.8 seconds to go, the Heat went with a lineup of Chalmers, Battier, James Jones (shooters) with Wade and James (superstars who’ve worked playoff miracles before). This is a situation where everyone knows what’s coming. Wade or LeBron is getting the ball at the top of the key and either getting to the basket as quickly as possible or shooting a quick three. The Heat lined up straight across the floor, with Battier and James on the strong side and Wade and Chalmers far on the weak side. Instead of a series of screens to get at least one of the superstars open at the top, the screens managed to get both James and Wade pinned in the paint while Jones inbounded to Chalmers, who then through a bad pass to an just-arriving Wade. By now, two seconds had already ticked off the clock and the game was completely out of reach.
It was one of the dumbest plays I’ve ever seen.
The other problem with this team is how lazy they are getting back on defense. It’s sort of ironic, given how much of a threat they are with their offensive fast breaks. Rondo’s quip from Game 4 about “complaining and crying to the officials” is absolutely spot on. This has been Wade’s MO for years. It’s more difficult to point to guys not getting back, but there was plenty of it last night. For one, superstars lead by example. If you see Dwyane Wade hustling back after getting knocked to the floor with no call, you’re more likely to do it after you miss a three. It’s something a good coach with control of his team would’ve instilled a long time ago.
Finally, the Heat have never had a set rotation. They couldn’t even settle on a starting lineup throughout the season—every player on the Heat started a game except for Juwan Howard (7 MPG in 28 games) and some dude named Mickell Gladness (3.5 MPG in 8 games). Yes, they had a lot of injuries, but their main starting center, Joel Anthony, started 51 out of 64 games. Eddy Curry started one. Dexter Pittman started six. Ronny Turiaf, brought on late in the season, started 5 out of 13. None of those dudes played a minute last night. Not one. The center position was played entirely by Udonis Haslem, gimpy Bosh, and LeBron.
Rotational continuity is vital. Miami has a lot of players who play multiple positions: Shane Battier is a 2/3, Mike Miller is a 2/3, LeBron is a 3/4 who plays like a 1, Udonis Haslem is a 4/5. This should be an advantage—if you have superstars like James and Wade and a pile of solid role players, you don’t necessarily need to worry about traditional lineups. The Bulls used to throw out Toni Kukoc (not a center, but a tall jump shooter, like Bosh), Dennis Rodman (undersized but tough, like Haslem or Battier), Scottie Pippen (like James), Michael Jordan (like Wade) and Steve Kerr/Ron Harper (point guards in name only, like Chalmers). The reason the Heat haven’t been able to cover up their weak positions (center and point guard) or make their aging role players better is because the roles were never defined. Not once, throughout the regular season or playoffs, was Spoelestra able to say, “Ok, this is how we’re going to play. This is what works for us. We need you to do this.”
Miami should’ve blown through this Boston team. Their bench is Mickeal Pietrus (washed up), Keyon Dooling (sucks), Greg Stiemsma (solid, but rookie), and Marquis Daniels (washed up). Ray Allen can’t run or shoot. Paul Pierce can barely get around anyone. Rajon Rondo, their best player, regularly passes out of open layups (twice in the first three minutes last night, neither of which led to baskets). The Celtics are another team with no off-ball movement, except their point guard is only a threat to score from ten feet in. They straight-up just want it more. Well, that, and Kevin Garnett is playing hist best ball in years and Rondo is really, really good.
(Quick aside, because Boston is the poster child for the problem of taking it easy in the regular season: If Boston had tried harder and won a few more games, they would’ve had the fourth seed against Atlanta in the first round. Since neither of those teams can win on the road, this would’ve saved some time, no? And maybe, just maybe, if they’d taken care of business earlier against a barely-deserves-to-be-there 76ers team, they could’ve gotten some rest before this Miami series. A slightly healthier Ray Allen, potentially Avery Bradley back (but probably not), and everyone moving a bit better. Beantown, just know that this column would be about you if you hadn’t won last night.)
I’m not saying Miami doesn’t have a chance to win this series. They’ve still got Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. But don’t forget that Game 2 was extremely winnable for Boston (115-111 in OT, with some more-than-sketchy calls). The Heat should’ve won in five. With how they’ve played lately, they don’t deserve the series. And Spoelestra doesn’t deserve a job.
And think how different things would be if Derrick Rose still had both knees.
The Draft Lottery is Nearly Meaningless and Impossible to Fix
Posted: June 1, 2012 Filed under: 2012 Playoffs, NBA history, Small-market teams and competitive balance | Tags: boston celtics, dwyane wade, greg oden, kevin durant, lebron james, miami heat, nba draft lottery, nba rigged, oklahoma city thunder, san antonio spurs, tim duncan 2 CommentsIn perhaps the funniest Draft moment ever, the until-seven-weeks-ago-NBA-owned New Orleans Hornets won the first overall pick. This ranks right up there with Portland picking Bowie over Jordan, Detroit/Memphis picking Darko Milicic/Hasheem Thabeet number two in 2003/2008, New York winning the first-ever draft lottery and the rights to Patrick Ewing, and Cleveland winning the first overall pick and the rights to a guy who had only played eleven college games (less funny since he went on to win Rookie of the Year, but still). This will spark 10,000 “the NBA is rigged” conversations, all of which will be annoying. I don’t believe the NBA is rigged, and more importantly, I can’t believe the NBA is rigged, or it’s just not fun.
But if you want to know my theory, Stern and Co. did rig the draft, only because they guessed no one would think them that brazen.
Anyway, people get all bent out of shape over the draft, when it really guarantees nothing. Yes, I’ve long advocated for building through the draft, but not as a panacea. You build through the draft to get good players cheap. Think the Bulls are going to be able to afford Taj Gibson after this year? No way. But they’ve gotten solid years out of him. Think the Thunder can afford both 6th Man of the Year James Harden and blocks leader Serge Ibaka after this year? No, but if they win the title this year, it will have been thanks to savvy drafting.
Other times, you build a nucleus that can develop chemistry together (again, for cheap) and maybe wants to stay together because the team has become family. I’ll admit this is more rare in an increasingly star-driven, weather-obsessed NBA, but it can happen—while the “young core” of Kirk Hinrich, Loul Deng, Andres Nocioni, and Ben Gordon are no longer together, that was the beginning of the high-chemistry, character-obsessed Bulls (and I’m pretty sure Ben Gordon wishes he was the 6th man behind Ronnie Brewer right now instead of, well, playing in Detroit).
So yes, building through the draft is important, but the Charlotte Bobcats aren’t ruined forever because they lost out on the Unibrow Sweepstakes (they’re ruined forever because Michael Jordan sucks as an executive). There’s an inordinate amount of luck involved in the draft. The Bulls didn’t suck or tank the year before they got Derrick Rose, they just got lucky enough not to have to start Hinrich-Gordon-Deng-Brandon Rush-Joakim Noah in 2008. Yet they were also smart enough not to draft Michael Beasley, be forced to start Hinrich-Gordon-Deng-Beasley-Noah, and have their thirteenth man being nothing but a marijuana mule for Beasley and Noah. And believe it or not, all four teams in the Conference Finals right now could have very different outlooks with the tiniest tweaks in their draft history.
San Antonio Spurs: San Antonio has relied on an inordinate amount of luck (Tim Duncan), and an absolutely insane amount of skill in the draft (Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, Kahwi Leonard, DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter). Had David Robinson not broken his foot, they wouldn’t have Duncan, or any of their four titles. But they certainly wouldn’t have this kind of extended stretch without their incredible scouting (Tony Parker was picked behind legends like Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, and Troy Murphy) and willingness to let foreign guys develop overseas (Splitter, picked 27th in the Oden/Durant draft but debuting in 2010, or Ginobli, picked 57th in 1999).
So it’s unfair to compare Charlotte, New Orleans, Washington, and Brooklyn. Wait a second, yes it is! If any of those teams had drafted Duncan, he would’ve LeBroned them in 2000 because their front offices are so mangled.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Their success comes from being smart and savvy, but damn are they dependent on some draft picks going different ways: Kevin Durant instead of Greg Oden. Russell Westbrook instead of Kevin Love, Danilo Gallinari, Eric Gordon, or Joe Alexander. James Harden instead of an uncertain-at-the-time Ricky Rubio or a ankles-made-of-tissue Stephen Curry. Serge Ibaka instead of Nicolas Batum, George Hill, or Darrell Arthur. Thabo Shefolosha instead of James Johnson (stretch, but that’s essentially what the trade was). Things go only slightly differently, and we’re looking at Rubio-Gordon-Small Forward X-Love-Oden. Then again, maybe not being in Portland, with their abysmal medical staff, would save Oden’s career. Does that version of Oden, combined with Love, ever give up a rebound? Plus, Love spaces the floor so Oden can do work down low, Gordon with his sweet stroke, and Rubio doing Rubio things. Anyone else salivating? That said, Durant will go down as the second-greatest player of his generation (unless he pulls out more titles than LeBron). Hard to complain with the results, and it’s unfair to say Oden would be anything other than what he has been.
Back to the Thunder, though. They would’ve taken Oden #1 in a heartbeat. Everyone would’ve. So as great as Sam Presti is, he should thank the basketball gods every night that theydidn’tget the number two pick.
Boston Celtics: Could have had Duncan in 1997. Maybe the same Spurs scenario plays out in Beantown—though walking on to a team with Antoine Walker, Nervous Pervis Ellison, Dino Radja, and Dee Brown isn’t quite the same as Robinson, Sean Elliot, and Avery Johnson. The Celts also could’ve had Oden/Durant, but probably wouldn’t have gotten the 2008 title.
Scenarios: Durant joins a young Boston team that includes Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo,Kendrick Perkins, and whatever you can get for Paul Pierce (his value was pretty high in 2007). That’s a pass-first point guard and a stud power forward/center whose midrange jumper has to be respected. How long before Boston wins multiple titles? Or maybe Boston still makes all those trades and stacks KG-Durant-Pierce-Allen-Rondo-Perkins (nearly impossible, but potentially the sickest smallball of all time). Or maybe they draft Oden and make all those trades (and Oden becomes what we all thought he’d be, because, again, Portland’s medical staff sucks). That gives us Oden-Garnett-Pierce-Allen-Rondo. Maybe they don’t wilt quite so much in 2009 when Garnett missed the playoffs. And they sure as hell don’t trade their starting center (Oden) for a backup forward who doesn’t fit and has heart problems (Green), meaning they don’t suck as much in 2012.
Miami: If the 2003 draft goes any differently at all, Miami Thrice never happens. Wade could have fallen to the Clippers or Bulls, Memphis could’ve gotten the number one pick, everyone could’ve realized Darko would be a bust, someone could’ve taken a flier on Maciej Lampe. But the likely scenarios are this: ‘Bron walks onto a Memphis team that features Pau Gasol, Shane Battier, and Mike Miller. They easily make the playoffs for the first four years of his career, potentially winning a championship. Then he leaves in 2007 for the Knicks, Heat, hometown Cavs, Bulls, almost anywhere but Memphis.
Or maybe Detroit picks Chris Bosh second and goes on to more extended dominance. Bosh and Ben Wallace would be excellent complements. Perhaps they don’t spend $90 million on Gordon and Charlie Villanueva in 2009.
Or maybe Wade doesn’t get hurt for two seasons, sending Miami into tank-for-2010 mode. But netting Wade at the 5th pick got them a championship, and other than Kendrick Perkins and a bench-warming Darko, Wade is the only player in that draft with a ring.
So cheer the hell up, Bobcats/Wizards/Cavaliers/Nets fans. The draft is insane. Remember, Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilcrest haven’t played a single professional minute. Blake Griffin missed his whole rookie season and it’s a small miracle that he came back as explosive as he did. Greg Oden became a perpetually injured alcoholic. Steph Curry and Brandon Roy had unforeseen ankle/knee problems. People once talked about drafting Michael Beasley over Derrick Rose. Anything is possible. Except for fixing ping-pong balls.
Three-1 Blog 